[1]蔡承智,莫洪兰,梁颖.基于ARIMA模型的我国大豆单产预测分析[J].大豆科学,2017,36(05):789-795.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0789]
　CAI Cheng-zhi,MO Hong-lan,LIANG Ying.Prediction on Chinese Soybean Yield Based on ARIMA Model[J].Soybean Science,2017,36(05):789-795.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0789]
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基于ARIMA模型的我国大豆单产预测分析

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第36卷 期数: 2017年05期 页码: 789-795 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-09-20
Title:
Prediction on Chinese Soybean Yield Based on ARIMA Model
作者:
蔡承智1; 莫洪兰1; 梁颖2
（1.贵州财经大学 经济学院，贵州 贵阳 550025； 2.贵州大学 公共管理学院，贵州 贵阳 550025）
Author(s):
CAI Cheng-zhi1;  MO Hong-lan1;  LIANG Ying2
(1.Economy College of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China; 2.Public Administration Faculty of Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)
关键词:
ARIMA模型; 大豆; 单产
Keywords:
ARIMA model;  Soybean;  Yield
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0789
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
在我国大豆单产光合潜力和“农业生态区划”（AEZ）潜力基础上，运用ARIMA（自回归单整移动平均）模型预测了2020年前我国大豆单产。结果表明：我国大豆单产最大潜力为3 400 kg·hm-2，而2017、2018、2019和2020年单产将分别为1 899,1 926,1 954和1 982 kg·hm-2，分别是最大潜力的55.85%、56.65%、57.47%和58.29%。这意味着：未来提高我国大豆单产尚有较大空间，应保持高产耕地生产力与改良中低产田土并重。研究结果旨在为我国大豆生产提供决策参考信息。
Abstract:
In this paper, the potentials of Chinese soybean yield per unit are estimated by light use efficiency (LUE) and agricultural ecological zoning (AEZ) model, based on which the soybean yield before 2020 were predicted by ARIMA model. The results showed that maximum potential of Chinese soybean yield in long future estimated by AEZ model was 3 400 kg·ha-1, while the yield in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, predicted by ARIMA model, was 1 899,1 926,1 954 and 1 982 kg·ha-1, respectively, with 55.85%, 56.65%, 57.47% and 58.29% of its maximum potential, correspondingly. The results signified that higher improvement opportunities for Chinese soybean production come from both sustaining the productivity of high yield fields and ameliorating middle and low ones, which would provide reference significance to guiding national practice.

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备注/Memo

基金项目：贵州省科技计划（黔科合基础［2016］1527-1）。

第一作者简介：蔡承智（1966-），男，博士，研究员，主要从事农业生态经济研究。E-mail：caichengzhi@263.net。

更新日期/Last Update: 2017-11-01