[1]刘欢,张冬青.基于分位数回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析[J].大豆科学,2014,33(05):759-763.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2014.05.0759]
　LIU Huan,ZHANG Dong-qing.Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Quantile Regression[J].Soybean Science,2014,33(05):759-763.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2014.05.0759]
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基于分位数回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第33卷 期数: 2014年05期 页码: 759-763 栏目: 出版日期: 2014-10-25
Title:
Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Quantile Regression
文章编号:
1000-9841.2014.05.0759
作者:
刘欢; 张冬青
南京农业大学 工学院，江苏 南京 210031
Author(s):
LIU Huan; ZHANG Dong-qing
Engineering College of Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210031,China
关键词:
分位数回归; 大豆价格; 影响因素
Keywords:
Quantile regression; Domestic soybean price; Influencing factors
分类号:
F713
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2014.05.0759
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
大豆是重要的粮食作物，同时也是油料的重要来源，在我国国民经济中占有重要地位。由于受到多种因素影响,国产大豆价格表现出随机、不规则的波动性，冲击了大豆产业的经济效益。在定性分析国产大豆价格影响因素的基础上，建立了多元线性分位数回归模型，并分析每种因素在不同分位数下对国产大豆价格的影响程度，并据此提出了一些促进我国大豆产业健康发展的对策建议。
Abstract:
Soybean is an important crop,and an important source of oil,so it plays an important role in China national economy.Due to a variety of factors,the price of soybean shows random and irregular volatility,which influencing economic benefit of soybean industry.In the paper,domestic soybean was analyzed on the basis of qualitative method from 3 aspects of supplying,demanding and macroeconomic.A quantile regression model for soybean price in China was proposed and every factor’s effect on prices of soybean under different quantile weights was analyzed.The result showed that world’s soybean production,Chinese consumer confidence index and China money supply were the main influencing factors.Domestic soybean price was negatively correlated to world’s soybean production and positively correlated to Chinese consumer confidence indes and China money supply.Meanwhile,some suggestions to promote the healthy development of soybean industry in China were put forward according to the former model.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

基金项目：国家自然科学基金(71101072, 71301077)；江苏省自然科学基金(BK2011652)；南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学基金（SK2014011）。

第一作者简介：刘欢（1990-），女，硕士，主要从事预测与决策研究。E-mail:524821113@qq.com。
通讯作者：张冬青(1971-)，女，博士，副教授，主要从事预测与决策，经济信号处理研究。E-mail:hollycase@163.com。

更新日期/Last Update: 2014-12-27