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[1]高磊,张冬青,叶方如,等.基于符号回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析[J].大豆科学,2017,36(05):782-788.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0782]
　GAO Lei,ZHANG Dong-qing,YE Fang-ru,et al.Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Symbolic Regression[J].Soybean Science,2017,36(05):782-788.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0782]

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基于符号回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第36卷期数: 2017年05期页码: 782-788 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-09-20

Title:: Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Symbolic Regression

作者:: 高磊¹; 张冬青¹; 叶方如²; 黄宇¹; (1.南京农业大学工学院，江苏南京 210031; 2.东北林业大学经济管理学院，黑龙江哈尔滨 150040)

Author(s):: GAO Lei¹; ZHANG Dong-qing¹; YE Fang-ru²; HUANG Yu¹; （1. College of Engineering, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, China; 2. College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China）

关键词:: 大豆价格; 符号回归; 影响因素

Keywords:: Soybean price; Symbolic regression; Influence factors

DOI:: 10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0782

文献标志码:: A

摘要:: 大豆作为我国重要的粮食作物与油料来源，其价格对居民生活以及农业经济具有重要影响。大豆价格影响因素分析对调控大豆价格、稳定大豆市场有重大意义。在定性分析基础上，采用符号回归法对大豆价格的影响因素进行分析。结果表明：货币供应量与进口大豆到港分销价格对大豆价格影响最大，其次为世界大豆产量与国内需求量，之后是国内大豆自给量与大豆进口量，居民消费价格指数与消费者信心指数影响最小。最后，根据分析结果对国内大豆市场调控提出指导意见。

Abstract:: As the important food crops and oil source in our country, the price of soybeans has important effects on residents′ life and agricultural economy.Analysis on influencing factors of domestic soybean price has great significance to control soybean price and stabilize the soybean market.On the basis of qualitative analysis, the influence factors of soybean price were analyzed by symbol regression method.The results show that the money supply and soybean export price have the greatest impact on soybean price, followed by the world′s soybean production and domestic demand, which followed by domestic soybean self-sufficiency and soybean imports, the consumer price index and the consumer confidence index have the least impact Finally, provide some suggestions to the domestic soybean market regulation according to the analysis results.

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相似文献/References:

[1]刘欢,张冬青.基于分位数回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析[J].大豆科学,2014,33(05):759.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2014.05.0759]
　LIU Huan,ZHANG Dong-qing.Analysis on Influencing Factors of Domestic Soybean Price Based on Quantile Regression[J].Soybean Science,2014,33(05):759.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2014.05.0759]
[2]陈昕,周曙东.贸易环境变动对国内外大豆价格传导机制的影响分析[J].大豆科学,2016,35(01):148.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.01.0148]
　CHEN Xin,ZHOU Shu-dong.Research of Impact of Trade Environment Change on Domestic and Foreign Soybean Price Transmission System[J].Soybean Science,2016,35(05):148.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.01.0148]
[3]范震,马开平,姜顺婕,等.基于改进GM（1，N）模型的我国大豆价格影响因素分析及预测研究[J].大豆科学,2016,35(05):847.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.05.0847]
　FAN Zhen,MA Kai-ping,JIANG Shun-jie,et al.Influence Factors Analysis and Price Prediction of Soybean in China Based on Improved GM (1, N) Model[J].Soybean Science,2016,35(05):847.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.05.0847]
[4]徐鑫洲,马开平.基于系统动力学的我国大豆价格预测分析[J].大豆科学,2018,37(05):787.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.05.0787]
　XU Xin-zhou,MA Kai-ping.Prediction and Analysis of Soybean Price in China Based on System Dynamics[J].Soybean Science,2018,37(05):787.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.05.0787]

备注/Memo

基金项目：国家自然科学基金（71301077）；南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学基金（SK2014011）。第一作者简介：高磊（1994-），男，硕士，主要从事预测与决策研究。E-mail:1340553895@qq.com。通讯作者：张冬青（1971-），女，博士，副教授，主要从事预测与决策、农业系统工程研究。E-mail:zhangdq@njau.edu.cn。

更新日期/Last Update: 2017-11-01