[1]郑昌玲,王建林,宋迎波,等.大豆产量动态预报模型研究[J].大豆科学,2008,27(06):943-948.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2008.06.0943]
　ZHENG Chang-ling,WANG Jian-lin,SONG Ying-bo,et al.Dynamic Prediction Model of Soybean Yield Per Unit[J].Soybean Science,2008,27(06):943-948.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2008.06.0943]
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大豆产量动态预报模型研究

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第27卷 期数: 2008年06期 页码: 943-948 栏目: 出版日期: 2008-12-25
Title:
Dynamic Prediction Model of Soybean Yield Per Unit
文章编号:
1000-9841(2008)06-0943-06
作者:
郑昌玲; 王建林; 宋迎波; 陈晖
国家气象中心，北京 100081
Author(s):
ZHENG Chang-ling; WANG Jian-lin; SONG Ying-bo; CHEN Hui
National Meteorological Centre，China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081，China
关键词:
大豆; 产量动态预报; 气象因子综合聚类
Keywords:
Soybean; Yield dynamic prediction; Synthesized of meteorological factors
分类号:
S565.1
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2008.06.0943
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
近年来，受进口大豆的冲击，中国大豆产业面临着严重挑战。为了给政府决策提供可靠的依据、保障中国粮食安全，每年能准确地进行大豆产量预报具有重要意义。利用大豆不同生育阶段气象因子的综合聚类指标选择气象相似年型，再根据相似年的产量变化确定预报年的产量气象影响指数，建立全国大豆单产动态预报模型。通过对1995~2004年大豆产量进行动态预报，结果表明：5月31日、6月30日、7月31日、8月31日和9月30日大豆产量预报准确率分别为97.0%、93.8%、94.9%、93.7%、95.1%，实现了大豆产量的连续、动态、定量预报。
Abstract:
In recent years，Chinese soybean product faces serious challenge because of the impacts of imported soybean.It is important to provide credible information for government decision-making and ensure the security of food supplies in China that soybean yield is predicted accurately in advance every year.Based on the synthesized cluster indicators of meteorological factors at different growing period of soybean，the similar meteorological years were chosen to calculate meteorological impacts index of yield for the predication，and a dynamic prediction model of the soybean yield per unit was established.The soybean yield per unit of ten years was dynamically predicted from 1995 to 2004.The results showed that the average accuracy of ten years was 97.0%，93.8%，94.9%，93.7% and 95.1% for May 31，June 30，July 31，August 31 and September 30 respectively.The dynamic prediction model realized a successive dynamic quantitative prediction of soybean.

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备注/Memo

作者简介：郑昌玲（1980-），女，硕士，从事农业气象业务和科研工作。E-mail:zhengcl@cma.gov.cn。

更新日期/Last Update: 2014-10-04