PENG Shi-guang,GENG Xian-hui.Forecasting for Import Quantity and Value of China′s Soybean Based on ARIMA and GM (1,1) Models[J].Soybean Science,2020,39(04):626-632.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2020.04.0626]
基于ARIMA和GM（1,1）模型的中国大豆进口量及进口额预测
- Title:
- Forecasting for Import Quantity and Value of China′s Soybean Based on ARIMA and GM (1,1) Models
- Keywords:
- Soybean; Import quantity; Import value; Forecasting
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为准确预测2020-2022年中国大豆的进口量及进口额，分别采用ARIMA模型、GM（1,1）模型以及ARIMA-GM组合模型对2016-2019年大豆进口量及进口额数据进行拟合，以降低预测风险，并根据拟合结果选择最优预测模型进行预测。研究表明：大豆进口量及进口额均可采用ARIMA-GM组合模型进行预测，预测结果显示，2020-2022年中国大豆进口量将分别为8.76×107，8.94×107和9.33×107 t；大豆进口额将分别为357.59×108，375.73×108和398.44×108 USD。研究结论科学、可靠，可为中国大豆产业的经营和管理提供一定的科学依据。
- Abstract:
- Abstract: In order to accurately forecast China′s soybean import quantity and value in 2020-2022, the ARIMA model, GM (1,1) model and ARMIA-GM combination model were used to fit the 2016-2019 import quantity and value data respectively, reducing the forecasting risk, and the optimal forecasting model was selected for forecasting based on the fitted results. The results showed that: The ARMIMA-GM model was selected for the forecasting of soybean import quantity and value, and China′s soybean import quantity in 2020-2022 will be 8.76×107, 8.94×107 and 9.33×107 t, respectively. Import value in 2020-2022 will be 357.59×108, 375.73×108 and 398.44×108 USD, respectively. The research conclusions are scientific and reliable, which can provide a certain scientific basis for the operation and management of the China′s soybean industry.
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