[1]蔡承智,黄军结,梁颖.基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆总产预测分析[J].大豆科学,2019,38(02):298-303.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.02.0298]
　CAI Cheng-zhi,HUANG Jun-jie,LIANG Ying.Analysis of Global Soybean Production Quantity Predicted by ARIMA Model[J].Soybean Science,2019,38(02):298-303.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.02.0298]
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基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆总产预测分析

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第38卷 期数: 2019年02期 页码: 298-303 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-03-20
Title:
Analysis of Global Soybean Production Quantity Predicted by ARIMA Model
作者:
蔡承智1; 黄军结1; 梁颖2
(1.贵州财经大学 经济学院, 贵州 贵阳 550025; 2.贵州大学 公共管理学院, 贵州 贵阳 550025)
Author(s):
CAI Cheng-zhi1;  HUANG Jun-jie1;  LIANG Ying2
(1.Faculty of Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China; 2.Public Administration School of Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)
关键词:
ARIMA模型; 世界大豆; 收获面积; 单产; 总产
Keywords:
ARIMA model;  Global soybean;  Area harvested;  Production quantity
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.02.0298
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为给我国大豆生产及进口提供决策参考信息，运用ARIMA（自回归单整移动平均）模型预测分析了2021年前世界大豆收获面积、平均单产及总产。结果表明：2018、2019、2020和2021年世界大豆收获面积分别为1.23×108，1.27×108，1.31×108和1.34×108 hm2，平均单产分别为2 767，2 811，2 855和2 900 kg?hm-2，总产分别为3.40×108，3.57×108，3.74×108和3.89×108 t；同期中国大豆收获面积分别为6.77×106，6.72×106，6.68×106和6.63×106 hm2，平均单产分别为1 866，1 887，1 908和1 930 kg?hm-2， 总产分别为1.26×107，1.27×107，1.27×107和1.28×107 t；同期美国大豆收获面积分别为3.49×107，3.56×107，3.64×107和3.71×107 hm2，平均单产分别为3 287，3 329，3 372和3 415 kg?hm-2，总产分别为1.15×108，1.18×108，1.23×108和1.27×108 t。该结果意味着：世界大豆的收获面积在扩大、单产在提高、总产在增加，中国大豆收获面积在缓慢缩小、单产在提高、2004年后总产在减少，美国大豆收获面积在扩大、单产在提高、总产在增加。
Abstract:
As one of important crops used for food and oil in China and even the world, the soybean situation of production affects food security in the future. However up to now, there are few reports on ‘time series’ model used for studying situation and trend of global soybean production. Thus, in this paper ARIMA (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used for predicting and analyzing area harvested, average yield and production quantity of soybean by 2021 in the world. The results showed that in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, global soybean was respectively predicted to be 1.23×108, 1.27×108, 1.31×108 and 1.34×108 ha of area harvested, 2 767, 2 811, 2 855 and 2 900 kg?ha-1 of average yield, and 3.40×108, 3.57×108, 3.74×108 and 3.89×108 t of production quantity, while Chinese soybean was respectively predicted to be 6.77×106, 6.72×106, 6.68×106 and 6.63×106 ha of area harvested, 1 866, 1 887, 1 908 and 1 930 kg?ha-1 of average yield, and 1.26×107, 1.27×107, 1.27×107 and 1.28×107 t of production quantity, and American soybean was respectively predicted to be 3.49×107, 3.56×107, 3.64×107 and 3.71×107 ha of area harvested, 3 287, 3 329, 3 372 and 3 415 kg?ha-1 of average yield, and 1.15×108, 1.18×108, 1.23×108 and 1.27×108 t of production quantity. These results mean that global soybean owns enlarging area harvested, rising yield and increasing production quantity, while Chinese soybean is slowly reducing area harvested, rising yield and decreasing production quantity from 2004, and American soybean holds enlarging area harvested, rising yield and increasing production quantity. The conclusion can provides decision-making reference for Chinese soybean production and import.

参考文献/References:

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[2]蔡承智,张建威,梁颖.基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆单产预测分析[J].大豆科学,2018,37(03):452.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.03.0452]
　CAI Cheng-zhi,ZHANG Jian-wei,LIANG Ying.Analysis of Potential Yield of Global Soybean Forecasted by ARIMA Model[J].Soybean Science,2018,37(02):452.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.03.0452]

备注/Memo

收稿日期：2018-09-05

基金项目：贵州省科技计划（黔科合外G字［2012］7051号）。
第一作者简介：蔡承智（1966-），男，博士，研究员，主要从事农业生态经济研究。E-mail：caichengzhi@mail.gufe.edu.cn。

更新日期/Last Update: 2019-04-01