LI Yi,ZHOU Jin-cheng,LI Yu-shuang,et al.Study on Asymmetric Price Transmission in China’s Soybean Import and Crushing Industry Chain[J].Soybean Science,2020,39(01):146-151.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2020.01.0146]
中国大豆进口及压榨产业链的非对称价格传导研究
- Title:
- Study on Asymmetric Price Transmission in China’s Soybean Import and Crushing Industry Chain
- Keywords:
- Imported soybean; Crushing industry chain; Asymmetric price transmission; APT-ECM model; Market power
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 目前，进口大豆量占我国大豆消费量的88%左右，进口大豆基本都用于压榨豆油和豆粕，为进一步规避大豆市场价格波动风险、维护粮食安全，本研究应用APT-ECM模型，研究中国大豆进口及压榨产业链的非对称传导现，发现它们之间存在明显的非对称价格传导特点：中国大豆价格对来自国际大豆价格“正向冲击”的反应幅度大于“负向冲击”，说明国内大豆进口企业的议价能力弱；中国豆油、豆粕价格对来自大豆价格的“负向冲击”的反应幅度大于“正向冲击”，说明大豆压榨企业的议价能力强，能更快速将成本压力传递给下游的豆油、豆粕购买者。因此价格调控措施在实施时机、力度与节奏方面应该有所不同，需要培育中国大型大豆经营主体，建立多元化的进口大豆采购渠道，增强对国际大豆价格的定价权。
- Abstract:
- Soybean imports account for about 88% of China′s soybean consumption. Imported soybeans are mostly used to produce crushed soybean oil and soybean meal. In order to help to avoid the risk of price fluctuation in soybean market and maintain food security, we studied the price transmission characteristics. The APT-ECM model was applied in this paper to find out the obvious asymmetric price transmission characteristics between them. The response range of Chinese soybean price to the ‘positive impact’ from international soybean price was greater than the ‘negative impact’, which indicated that domestic soybean importers had weak bargaining power. However, the response range of Chinese soybean oil and soybean meal price to the ‘negative impact’ from soybean price was greater than ‘positive impact’, which indicated that soybean crushing enterprises had strong bargaining power and can transfer cost pressure to downstream buyers of soybean oil and soybean meal quickly. Therefore, the timing, intensity, and rhythm of price control measures should vary. It is necessary to cultivate the domestic large-scale soybean businesses and establish diversified procurement channels for the importing soybeans, in order to enhance the pricing power of international soybean prices.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2019-05-10