[1]祁雪莲,邓华玲,徐 丹,等.数量化理论在预测大豆食心虫发生概率上的应用[J].大豆科学,2012,31(04):640-644,648.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-9841.2012.04.026]
　QI Xue-lian,DENG Hua-ling,XU Dan,et al.Application of Quantification Theory in Predicting Occurrence Probability of Soybean Pod Borer[J].Soybean Science,2012,31(04):640-644,648.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-9841.2012.04.026]
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数量化理论在预测大豆食心虫发生概率上的应用

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第31卷 期数: 2012年04期 页码: 640-644,648 栏目: 出版日期: 2012-08-25
Title:
Application of Quantification Theory in Predicting Occurrence Probability of Soybean Pod Borer
文章编号:
1000-9841（2012）04-0640-05
作者:
祁雪莲1; 邓华玲1; 徐 丹1; 赵奎军2
1.东北农业大学 理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030；
2.东北农业大学 农学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030
Author(s):
QI Xue-lian1; DENG Hua-ling1; XU Dan1; ZHAO Kui-jun2
1.College of Science,Northeast Agricultural University， Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang；
2.College of Agriculture,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang,China
关键词:
大豆食心虫; 危害程度; 数量化理论I; 预测
Keywords:
Soybean pod borer; Damage degree; Quantification theory I; Prediction
分类号:
S565.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-9841.2012.04.026
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
大豆食心虫的危害程度（虫食率）受食心虫虫卵的越冬基数、气象条件等定量因素的影响，并受品种、防治情况等定性因素的影响。考虑影响危害程度的11个因素，如上年平均脱荚率、大豆品种、防治情况、越冬幼虫成活率等。利用数量化预测方法所具有的对数据精确性要求不高，同时能考虑定量因子和定性因子的特点，以当年的虫食率为基准变量建立数量化预测模型，对大豆食心虫不同危害程度发生的概率进行预测。在对73个样本三级模型的回报中，完全正确的有63个，回报率为86.30%，预报等级误差为1级的有8个，占总样本数的10.96%，回报精度较好，所建立的模型具有实际意义。
Abstract:
Damage degree of soybean pod borer(Percentage of Damaged Seeds)is influenced by quantitative factors(over-winter cardinal number,meteorological condition etc.)and qualitative factors(variety,control measures etc.).According to eleven factors related to damage degree,such as average shelling percentage of last year,soybean varieties，control situation,survival rate of overwintering larvae and so on,this paper built model by taking percentage of damaged seeds as reference variables,and then predicted occurrence probability of various damage degree on soybean pod borer by using quantification theory I.In the return analysis of level-3 model for 73 samples,63 samples were right and the return rate was 86.30%.Eight samples,accounting for 10.96% of the total behaved grade 1 forecast error.Results suggest the prediction model has practical significance for its higher precision of return analysis.

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备注/Memo

基金项目：黑龙江省博士后基金资助项目(LBH-205033); 东北农业大学科研基金项目。

第一作者简介：祁雪莲（1976-），女，硕士，讲师，主要研究方向为数学生态。E-mail：qxl365@1216.com。
通讯作者：邓华玲（1965-），女，博士，教授，主要研究方向为应用数学。E-mail：hldeng1965@126.com。

更新日期/Last Update: 2014-08-18