[1]崔宁波,徐杭,刘姝君.逆全球化与豆粕替代方案研究[J].大豆科学,2019,38(05):786-792.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.05.0786]
　CUI Ning-bo,XU Hang,LIU Shu-jun.Research on Reverse Globalization and Soybean Meal Alternatives[J].Soybean Science,2019,38(05):786-792.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.05.0786]
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逆全球化与豆粕替代方案研究

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第38卷 期数: 2019年05期 页码: 786-792 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-09-20
Title:
Research on Reverse Globalization and Soybean Meal Alternatives
作者:
（东北农业大学 经济管理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030）
Author(s):
(School of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China)
关键词:
逆全球化; 豆粕; 替代方案; 优化分析
Keywords:
Inverse globalization;  Soybean meal;  Alternative;  Optimization analysis
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.05.0786
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
中国大豆市场需求构成主要来自大豆、豆油和豆粕，且进口大豆80%用于生产豆粕，在贸易摩擦紧张时期大豆的供给缺口直接导致豆粕的价格涨幅迅速，而近期的贸易摩擦缓和与大范围非洲猪瘟频发又导致豆粕走势较弱，豆粕价格的大幅波动一定程度上限制了我国饲料及养殖行业的发展。因此本文对如何通过改变豆粕的市场占有量，降低豆粕价格波动对于相关行业的影响，寻找可以带来更高经济效益的低含量豆粕饲料替代产品进行研究。以生猪为例，结合其生长发育所需最低营养标准建立了28个约束条件，将最为关键的成本费用问题确定为目标函数，运用Lingo软件求最优解。通过分析建模，得到现有条件下最合理的替代选择方案，对模型进行了灵敏度分析，验证其有效性，并对该模型的可推广性进行分析。
Abstract:
The demand for soybeans in China′s soybean market is mainly from soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, and 80% of imported soybeans are used to produce soybean meal. The supply gap of soybeans during the period of tight trade friction directly leads to a rapid increase in the price of soybean meal, while the recent trade friction eases and the frequent occurrence of African swine fever lead to a weaker trend of soybean meal. The large fluctuations in soybean meal prices have limited the development of China′s feed and aquaculture industry to some extent. Therefore, this article focued on how to reduce the market share of soybean meal, reduce the impact of soybean meal price fluctuations on related industries, and find low-content soybean meal feed substitute products that can bring higher economic benefits. Taking live pigs as an example, 28 constraints were established based on the minimum nutritional standards required for their growth and development. The most critical cost and expense issues were identified as objective functions, and Lingo software was used to find the optimal solution. Through analysis and modeling, the most reasonable alternatives under the existing conditions were obtained, and the sensitivity of the model was analysized to verify its effectiveness. Finally, the promotion strategy of the model was stated.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期：2019-03-24
基金项目：国家自然科学基金（71503036）；黑龙江省社科基金（19JYB022）。
第一作者简介：崔宁波（1980-），女，博士，教授，博导，主要从事农业经济理论与政策研究。E-mail：82890000@163.com。

更新日期/Last Update: 2019-09-20