[1]朱婧,范亚东,徐勇.基于改进GM(1,1)模型的中国大豆价格预测[J].大豆科学,2016,35(02):315-319.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.02-0315]
　ZHU Jing,FAN Ya-dong,XU Yong.Soybean Price Prediction in China Basedon Modified GM(1,1) Model[J].Soybean Science,2016,35(02):315-319.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.02-0315]
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基于改进GM(1,1)模型的中国大豆价格预测

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第35卷 期数: 2016年02期 页码: 315-319 栏目: 出版日期: 2016-03-20
Title:
Soybean Price Prediction in China Basedon Modified GM(1,1) Model
作者:
朱婧; 范亚东; 徐勇
东北农业大学 经济管理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨150030
Author(s):
ZHU Jing;  FAN Ya-dong;  XU Yong
College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
关键词:
中国大豆;  价格预测;  改进GM(1; 1)模型
Keywords:
Soybean in China;  Price prediction;  Modified GM(1; 1) model
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.02-0315
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
中国大豆产业是国家基础性产业之一，国内外大豆市场对大豆价格波动影响极大，对中国大豆波动情况加以研究具有重要的意义。在分析GM(1,1)模型有效性的基础上，讨论了其在农产品预测的可行性，从而采用改进GM（1,1）模型用1990-2014年中国大豆价格预测2015-2017年中国大豆价格分别为4.40，4.57和4.74元.kg-1，在本试验中改进GM（1,1）模型并没有对原始序列进行累加操作，说明原始序列具备准指数规律。检验结果表明后验差比值小于0.5和小误差概率大于0.8，说明采用灰色预测对此数据加以预测合格。2015年价格低于2015年东北三省和内蒙古大豆价格目标价格，说明中国大豆仍处于低迷状态，会导致中国大豆种植面积及农民种植意愿继续降低。据此给出对策与建议，一是继续提高大豆种植补贴和大豆目标价格；二是加大地方大豆产业的政策性扶持，尤其是非转基因大豆产业的扶持，保持国内大豆产业健康发展；三是提高大豆行业与豆农的组织化程度。
Abstract:
China soybean industry is one of the national fundamental industries, domestic and international market have enormous influence on the price fluctuation of soybean, soybean volatility on Chinese soybean research has the vital significance. This paper uses modified GM(1,1) to predict soybean price in China from 2015 to 2017 by the datasets with soybean price from 1990 to 2014. Predicted soybean price in China is 4.40, 4.57 and 4.74 yuan.kg-1, respectively. In this experiment, the modified GM(1,1) has not done the accumulate operation on original sequences, illustrating that the original sequence has accurate index law. Test results showed that the posterior error ratio was less than 0.5 and small error probability was greater than 0.8, thus, using grey prediction to predict the data was qualified.Since predicted price in 2015 is lower than soybean target price in three northeast provinces and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, it showed that soybean in China was not successful and led to decreasing planting area of soybean in China and farmer planting willingness.Based on these, some suggestions were given as follows: firstly, planting subsidy and target price of soybean would be continuously improved. Secondly, government would specially support local soybean industry, especially, non-transgenic soybean industry, keeping healthy development of domestic soybean industry. Finally, organization degree of soybean industry and soybean growers would be improved in China.

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备注/Memo

第一作者简介：朱婧（1979-），女，博士，主要从事农业产业研究。E-mail:350142771@qq.com。通讯作者：范亚东（1963-），男，教授，博导，主要从事农业产业研究。E-mail：zhujing2020@126.com。

更新日期/Last Update: 2016-04-04