XU Xin-yi,CAO Li-juan,LI Tian-xiang.China′s Soybean Trade with Brazil Under COVID-19∶ Status Quo, Opportunitiesand Challenges[J].Soybean Science,2021,40(04):553-561.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2021.04.0553]
新冠疫情下的中巴大豆贸易：现状、机遇与挑战
- Title:
- China′s Soybean Trade with Brazil Under COVID-19∶ Status Quo, Opportunitiesand Challenges
- Keywords:
- Soybean trade; Brizal; COVID-19; Food security
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 巴西是中国大豆进口的重要来源国，新冠疫情在全球范围内持续发酵，巴西位于疫情“震中”地带，其国内形势日益严峻。本研究介绍了巴西大豆产业发展及出口现状并分析了疫情对巴西大豆生产及出口的影响，在此基础上揭示了中巴大豆贸易面临的机遇与挑战。研究表明：短期来看，疫情下巴西大豆生产暂未受到显著影响。巴西货币大幅贬值使其大豆国际价格下跌，市场竞争力提升，出口增加。疫情期间出台的多项农业支持政策进一步为中巴大豆贸易顺利开展提供保障。巴西巨大的大豆生产出口潜力以及与中国良好的经贸关系也为中巴大豆贸易长期发展提供机遇。然而，中国对巴西大豆市场的高度依赖，以及疫情所暴露出的巴西大豆供应链的脆弱性问题，也为中巴大豆贸易长期可持续发展带来挑战。中国应密切关注并深入巴西大豆供应链各个环节，降低中巴大豆贸易风险，并进一步扩宽进口来源，保障国内大豆供给。本研究对于降低中国大豆进口风险，充分利用“两个市场、两种资源”保障国家粮食安全具有重要的启示意义。
- Abstract:
- Brazil is an important source country of China′s soybean imports. As the COVID-19 has swept the world, being one of the ‘epicenters’ of the epidemic, Brazil′s domestic situation is increasingly severe. This study introduced the development and export status of Brazil′s soybean industry, and analyzed the impact of the epidemic situation on Brazil′s soybean production and export, and revealed the opportunities and challenges faced by China-Brazil soybean trade. The results showed that, in the short term, the soybean production in Brazil was not significantly affected by the pandemic. Due to the substantial depreciation of the Real, the international price of Brazil′s soybeans fell, the market competitiveness improved and the export increased. A number of agricultural support policies further provided a guarantee for the smooth development of China′s soybean trade with Brazil. Brazil′s huge soybean production and export potential and good economic and trade relations with China also provided opportunities for the long-term development of soybean trade. However, China′s high dependence on Brazil′s soybean market and the vulnerability of Brazil′s soybean supply chain exposed by the epidemic also posed challenges to the long-term sustainable development of China-Brazil soybean trade. China should pay close attention to and go deep into all links of Brazil′s soybean supply chain, reduce the risk of soybean trade, and further expand the source of imports to ensure domestic soybean supply. This study has important practical significance for reducing the risk of soybean import and making full use of domestic and foreign markets to ensure national food security.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2021-01-23