[1]蔡承智,张建威,梁颖.基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆单产预测分析[J].大豆科学,2018,37(03):452-457.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.03.0452]
　CAI Cheng-zhi,ZHANG Jian-wei,LIANG Ying.Analysis of Potential Yield of Global Soybean Forecasted by ARIMA Model[J].Soybean Science,2018,37(03):452-457.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.03.0452]
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基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆单产预测分析

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第37卷 期数: 2018年03期 页码: 452-457 栏目: 出版日期: 2018-05-20
Title:
Analysis of Potential Yield of Global Soybean Forecasted by ARIMA Model
作者:
蔡承智1; 张建威1; 梁颖2
(1.贵州财经大学 经济学院,贵州 贵阳 550025; 2.贵州大学 公共管理学院,贵州 贵阳 550025)
Author(s):
CAI Cheng-zhi1;  ZHANG Jian-wei1;  LIANG Ying2
(1.Faculty of Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China; 2.Public Administration School of Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)
关键词:
ARIMA模型; 世界大豆; 单产; 产量潜力
Keywords:
ARIMA model;  Global soybean;  Yield;  Yield potential
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.03.0452
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
大豆是世界上最重要的油料及经济作物之一，随着世界人口数量的不断增加及耕地面积的持续下降，提高大豆单产潜力越来越受到重视。所以，分析全球大豆未来单产对指导世界大豆生产具有重大意义。然而，迄今为止基于“时间序列”模型预测全球大豆单产潜力尚鲜见报道。因此，本文运用ARIMA（自回归单整移动平均）模型预测分析了世界大豆单产潜力。结果表明：2017、2018、2019、2020和2021年世界大豆平均单产将分别为2 825，2 782，2 920，2 968和3 017 kg·hm-2，同期世界大豆最高单产将分别为4 037，4 081，4 129，4 171和4 217 kg·hm-2；前者分别是后者的69.98%、70.37%、70.72%、71.16%和71.54%。该结果意味着：就世界大豆生产而言，高产国家进一步提高单产变得越来越困难，未来总产的提高应主要依靠改良中、低产国家耕地；与世界大豆相比，未来提高我国大豆单产尚有较大空间，应保持高产耕地生产力与改良中低产田土并重。
Abstract:
Soybean is one of the world’s most important food oil and economic crops, with the continuous increase of the world’s population and ever declining farmland, attention has increasingly focused on improving the potential yield of soybean. Therefore, analyzing the yield of global soybean in the future is of great significance to the production of soybean in the world. However up to now, there were few reports on forecasting potential yield of global soybean on the bases of ‘time series’ model. In this paper, potential yield of global soybean is forecasted on ARIMA (auto-regression integrated moving average) model basis. The results showed that, in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, average yields of global soybean would be 2 825,2 872,2 920,2 968 and 3 017 kg·ha-1 while top ones would reach 4 037,4 081,4 129,4 171 and 4 217 kg·ha-1, respectively, the former was 69.98%, 70.37%, 70.72%, 71.16% and 71.54% of the later, correspondingly. The results signify that, as for global soybean production in the future, higher improvement opportunities will increasingly come from raising the potential of middle & low yield countries rather than high ones. In comparison, there is still a considerable space for China to increase future yield of soybean, and the importance should be equally paid to both sustaining the productivity of high yield fields and ameliorating middle & low ones.

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相似文献/References:

[1]蔡承智,莫洪兰,梁颖.基于ARIMA模型的我国大豆单产预测分析[J].大豆科学,2017,36(05):789.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0789]
　CAI Cheng-zhi,MO Hong-lan,LIANG Ying.Prediction on Chinese Soybean Yield Based on ARIMA Model[J].Soybean Science,2017,36(03):789.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0789]
[2]蔡承智,黄军结,梁颖.基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆总产预测分析[J].大豆科学,2019,38(02):298.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.02.0298]
　CAI Cheng-zhi,HUANG Jun-jie,LIANG Ying.Analysis of Global Soybean Production Quantity Predicted by ARIMA Model[J].Soybean Science,2019,38(03):298.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.02.0298]

备注/Memo

收稿日期：2018-02-13

基金项目：贵州省科技计划（黔科合基础［2016］1527-1号）。
第一作者简介：蔡承智（1966-），男，博士，研究员，主要从事农业生态经济研究。E-mail：caichengzhi@mail.gufe.edu.cn。

更新日期/Last Update: 2018-06-08