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[1]朱思柱,孙洪武.中国大豆主产区农户种植结构调整行为分析[J].大豆科学,2016,35(05):853-862.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.05.0853]
　ZHU Si-zhu,SUN Hong-wu.Analysis of Farmers Planting Structure Adjustment Behavior in China’s Major Soybean Producing Areas[J].Soybean Science,2016,35(05):853-862.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.05.0853]

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中国大豆主产区农户种植结构调整行为分析

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第35卷期数: 2016年05期页码: 853-862 栏目: 出版日期: 2016-09-20

Title:: Analysis of Farmers Planting Structure Adjustment Behavior in China’s Major Soybean Producing Areas

作者:: 朱思柱; 孙洪武; （江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所，江苏南京 210014）

Author(s):: ZHU Si-zhu; SUN Hong-wu; （Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China）

关键词:: 中国大豆主产区; 农户行为; 结构调整

Keywords:: Chinese major soybean producing areas; Farmers behavior; Structural adjustment

DOI:: 10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.05.0853

文献标志码:: A

摘要:: 根据2006-2010年东北和黄淮海两个大豆主产区5个省份2 039个大豆农户的面板数据，运用Tobit模型对豆农的种植结构调整行为进行实证分析后发现：大豆的相对价格是影响农户结构调整的重要因素，但不同地区的豆农对大豆相对价格的调整弹性存在显著差异；大豆生产受自然条件的制约在局部地区具有集聚性，大豆收入占家庭收入的比重越大的农户进行结构调整的难度更大，受大豆进口冲击的影响越大，耕地规模经营能够有效促进结构调整。今后在开放农产品市场的过程中，要充分考虑将资源密集型农产品在国内主产区尤其是集中度较高产区进行结构调整的可行性，做好替代品种选育和配套技术的储备，掌握好农产品进口与结构调整的节奏，同时在主产区要创造更适于土地规模经营的社会环境和制度环境促进种植结构调整。

Abstract:: Since the hard constraints of domestic resources, it is necessary to minimize the impact of farmers’ income when using international agricultural resources to meet the demand of resource-intensive agricultural products. In this paper, according to 2 039 soybean farmers′ panel data from five provinces in two major soybean producing areas during 2006-2010, we analyzed soybean farmers′ planting structure adjustment behavior by Tobit model and found that the relative price of soybean is an important factor to peasants for structural adjustment, but it varies in different areas, there is typical integration in soybean production since the restriction of the natural conditions. The greater proportion of soybean income in household income, the greater difficulty for structural adjustment, and the greater shocks due to soybean import, scale management can effectively promote the structural adjustment. In the process of open markets for agricultural products in the future, the feasibility must be fully considered for large-scale imports of agricultural products in main producing areas, especially for high concentration region, and be ready for breeding the replaced variety and supporting technology of reserves, the rhythm of importing and structure adjustment of agricultural should be controlled at the same time and create more suitable system environment for the land scale operation to promote the structural adjustment.

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备注/Memo

基金项目：转基因生物新品种培育重大专项（2014ZX0801503B）。第一作者简介：朱思柱（1985-），博士，助理研究员，主要从事农业产业经济研究。E-mail：zszmkt@163.com。通讯作者：孙洪武（1968-），博士，研究员，主要从事转基因生物安全管理和农业科技管理工作。E-mail：sunhw0617@sina.com。

更新日期/Last Update: 2016-09-25