DUN Guo-qiang,CHEN Hai-tao,YANG Ji-long,et al.Combined Forecasting Model of Soybean Seed Average Diameter Based on the Shapley Value[J].Soybean Science,2014,33(06):910-914.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2014.06.0910]
基于Shapley值的大豆种子均径组合预测模型
- Title:
- Combined Forecasting Model of Soybean Seed Average Diameter Based on the Shapley Value
- 文章编号:
- 1000-9841.2014.06.0910
- 分类号:
- S223.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 大豆种子均径是育种专用排种盘型孔设计的重要依据，精准构建大豆种子均径预测模型具有非常重要的意义。利用线性回归模型、粒重物理模型及二次回归模型分别对大豆种子均径进行预测，并对其预测误差进行了对比分析。在此基础上，应用Shapley值法确定组合预测模型中各单一预测模型的权重，依此构建了大豆种子均径的组合预测模型，并对随机选取的5粒东农52大豆样本均径进行了预测。结果表明：组合预测模型预测精度高于选定的各单一预测模型，平均预测误差较小，且预测误差波动有所降低，对大豆种子均径的预测是可行且有效的。同时，为其他作物种子的相关物理参数预测提供了一种实用的新方法。
- Abstract:
- Average diameter of soybean seed,as an important reference of breeding seed plate designing,the precise construction of average diameter of soybean seed forecasting model is very important.The linear regression model,grain weight physical model,quadratic regression model were built to predict the average diameter of soybean seed,and then contrastive analyzed prediction error of every forecasting model.Then the weight of every single forecasting model was determined by using Shapley value method,the combination forecasting model was built and used to predict average diameter of 5 Dongnong-52 soybean seed samples which were selected randomly.The results indicated that combination forecasting model’s prediction accuracy was higher than the selected individual forecasting models,the combined model had a smaller average error and decreased the fluctuation of error,the prediction of average diameter of soybean seed was feasible and effective.Meanwhile,the research provided a practical new method for relative physical parameters’ prediction of other crop seeds.
参考文献/References:
［1］牛远,徐宇,李广军,等.大豆种子大小和粒形的驯化研究[J].大豆科学,2012,31(4):522-528.(Niu Y,Xu Y,Li G J,et al.Domestication of Seed size and shape traits in soybean[J].Soybean Science,2012,31(4):522-528.)
备注/Memo
基金项目：现代农业产业技术体系建设专项（GARS-04);公益性行业（农业)科研专项（20130311)。