气候变化下野生大豆在中国潜在地理分布格局时空演化分析
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis of the Potential Geographical Distribution Pattern of Wild Soybean in Chinaunder Climate Change
- 摘要:
- 野生大豆(Glycine soja Siebold&Zucc.)是栽培大豆的近缘种和重要的种质资源，其遗传多样性和分布格局的稳定性直接关系到我国大豆产业的安全。未来气候变化可能会对其分布产生一定影响，预测气候变化下潜在地理分布的演化对保护我国野生大豆资源具有重要意义。本文利用ArcGis 10.8与MaxEnt 4软件分析了野生大豆在我国的地理分布特征，并预测了2000—2040年、2041—2060年、2061—2080年和2081—2100年4种碳排放情景(可发展持续发展路径SSP1-2.6、中间路径SSP2-4.5、竞争路径SSP3-7.0和化石燃料为主的发展路径SSP5-8.5)下其潜在地理分布变化。结果表明：(1) MaxEnt模型AUC值为0.888,说明模型预测结果良好；(2)最适宜生长条件为：最湿月份降水量150～350 mm、等温性20～27、最暖季度平均温度22～27.5 ℃、气温季节性变动系数745～910和最暖季度降水量375～625 mm; (3)未来中高适生区可能会向西南方向迁移，渤海沿岸高适生区可能会大幅缩减，松辽平原也存在减少和破碎化的趋势，在湖南的分布可能会增多且集中；(4)新疆温泉县、哈巴河县、内蒙古阿巴嘎旗与新巴尔虎右旗可能会出现适生区。研究可为我国野生大豆资源的保护与综合利用提供理论参考，对我国未来大豆产业的发展提出科学建议。
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