[1]陈伟,朱俊峰,田国强.中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆的影响及对策分析[J].大豆科学,2019,38(01):118-123.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.01.0118]
　CHEN Wei,ZHU Jun-feng,TIAN Guo-qiang.The Impact and Countermeasures Analysis of Sino-US Trade Friction on China′s Soybean[J].Soybean Science,2019,38(01):118-123.[doi:10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.01.0118]
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中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆的影响及对策分析

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第38卷 期数: 2019年01期 页码: 118-123 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-01-20
Title:
The Impact and Countermeasures Analysis of Sino-US Trade Friction on China′s Soybean
作者:
陈伟; 朱俊峰; 田国强
（中国农业大学 经济管理学院，北京 100083）
Author(s):
CHEN Wei;  ZHU Jun-feng;  TIAN Guo-qiang
(College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)
关键词:
中美贸易摩擦; 中国大豆; 影响; 对策分析
Keywords:
Sino-US trade friction;  China′s soybeans;  Impact;  Countermeasures analysis
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.01.0118
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
在中美贸易摩擦背景下，能否保障大豆有效供给和维护大豆相关产业稳定的问题备受学者和政府部门关注。本研究首先梳理了世界、中国及中美大豆生产和贸易状况，进而分析了中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆的影响，最终提出应对策略。研究结果表明中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆产生三方面的影响：（1）进口大豆价格上升，但是幅度较小；（2）豆油、畜产品成本增加，但是对CPI影响有限；（3）增加我国农民种豆积极性，减少对进口大豆的依赖，但是作用有限。应对措施：（1）适当增加国内大豆及油菜籽栽培面积；（2）增加从其它国家的大豆进口量，实施进口多元化；（3）增加大豆替代品的进口和消费，减少大豆进口量；（4）调整饲料配方，采用低蛋白饲料粮配方降低豆粕需求；（5）引导居民调整消费结构，减少大豆需求；（6）深化贸易布局，布局全球产业链。
Abstract:
Under the background of Sino-Us trade friction, the problem of whether to guarantee the effective supply of soybean and maintain the stability of soybean related industry has attracted the attention of scholars and government departments. This study firstly combed the world, China and China-US soybean production and trade status, and then assessed the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China′s soybeans, and finally put forward appropriate coping strategies. The results showed that the Sino-US trade friction had three effects on China′s soybean production: The price of imported soybeans rised, but the magnitude was small. The cost of soybean oil and livestock products increased, but the impact on CPI was limited. Increased China Farmers’ enthusiasm for growing soybeans and reduced their dependence on imported soybeans, but their effects were limited. Countermeasures: Appropriately increase the domestic soybean and rapeseed cultivation area. Increase the import of soybeans from other countries and diversify imports. Increase the import and consumption of soybean substitutes and reduce soybean imports. Adjust feed formula, use low-protein feed grain formula to reduce soybean meal demand. Guide residents to adjust consumption structure and reduce soybean demand. Deepen trade layout and lay out global industrial chain.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

收稿日期：2018-09-03

基金项目：农业农村资源等监测统计经费项目（081821301112421007）；国家自然科学基金(71273262)；粮食公益性行业科研专项(201513004-2)；北京市社会科学基金(17LJB003)；教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18YJA790122)；农业部对外经济合作中心委托项目“中日韩农业合作研究”；农业部对外经济合作中心委托项目“中国-东盟农业合作研究”。
第一作者简介：陈伟（1990-），男，硕士，主要从事农业经济研究。E-mail：18706882626@163.com。
通讯作者：田国强（1976-），男，博士，副教授，主要从事农业产业经济研究。E-mail：tiangq@cau.edu.cn。

更新日期/Last Update: 2019-01-22