[1]苗森,郑煜.利用时间序列模型预测黑龙江省大豆的比较优势[J].大豆科学,2013,32(01):80-88.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-9841.2013.01.019]
　MIAO Sen,ZHENG Yu.Prediction for Soybean Comparative Advantage in Heilongjiang Province Based on Time Series Model[J].Soybean Science,2013,32(01):80-88.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-9841.2013.01.019]
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利用时间序列模型预测黑龙江省大豆的比较优势

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S] 卷: 第32卷 期数: 2013年01期 页码: 80-88 栏目: 出版日期: 2013-02-25
Title:
Prediction for Soybean Comparative Advantage in Heilongjiang Province Based on Time Series Model
文章编号:
1000-9841(2013)01-0080-04
作者:
苗森;郑煜
东北林业大学 理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040
Author(s):
MIAO Sen; ZHENG Yu
College of Science,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang,China
关键词:
大豆; 时间序列模型; 综合比较优势; 预测模型
Keywords:
Soybean; Time series model; Comparative advantage; Prediction model
分类号:
F326.11
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-9841.2013.01.019
摘要:
以黑龙江省26年的大豆产量和种植规模作为研究对象,根据时间序列分析和作物比较优势的原理,建立大豆综合比较优势指数的时间序列模型,对优势指数做出预测。结果表明:2012～2017年黑龙江省大豆生产的比较优势指数分别为1.873、1.7323、1.7592、1.6106、1.6383,说明相对于全国大豆生产是占优势的,但是指数呈逐年下降趋势,所以建议有关部门给予足够的重视。
Abstract:
According to the principle of time series and cropcomparative advantage，taking the yield and planting area of soybean in Heilongjiang province form 1985 to 2010 as the research objects.We established the time series prediction model of the comprehensively comparative advantage of soybean in Heilongjiang province.The results illustrated that from 2012 to 2017 the comparative advantage for soybean production in Heilongjiang province were 1.873,1.7323,1.7592,1.6106 and 1.6383,respectively.This proved the soybean production in Heilongjiang province had an advantage over national level,but the advantage showed a decreasing trend.We suggest that relevant agricultural departments should pay enough attention about this trend.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

基金项目：黑龙江省自然科学基金(G201117)。

第一作者简介：苗森（1987-），男，在读硕士，研究方向为数理统计。E-mail:546761142@qq.com。
通讯作者：郑煜 (1962-)，女，教授，主要研究方向为概率论与数理统计。E-mail:zhengyu62@126.com。

更新日期/Last Update: 2013-02-20