|Table of Contents|

Forecasting for Import Quantity and Value of China′s Soybean Based on ARIMA and GM (1,1) Models(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2020年04期
Page:
626-632
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Forecasting for Import Quantity and Value of China′s Soybean Based on ARIMA and GM (1,1) Models
Author(s):
PENG Shi-guang;  GENG Xian-hui
(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)
Keywords:
Soybean;  Import quantity;  Import value;  Forecasting
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2020.04.0626
Abstract:
Abstract: In order to accurately forecast China′s soybean import quantity and value in 2020-2022, the ARIMA model, GM (1,1) model and ARMIA-GM combination model were used to fit the 2016-2019 import quantity and value data respectively, reducing the forecasting risk, and the optimal forecasting model was selected for forecasting based on the fitted results. The results showed that: The ARMIMA-GM model was selected for the forecasting of soybean import quantity and value, and China′s soybean import quantity in 2020-2022 will be 8.76×107, 8.94×107 and 9.33×107 t, respectively. Import value in 2020-2022 will be 357.59×108, 375.73×108 and 398.44×108 USD, respectively. The research conclusions are scientific and reliable, which can provide a certain scientific basis for the operation and management of the China′s soybean industry.

References:

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Last Update: 2020-09-02