|Table of Contents|

Research on the Adjustment Strategy of China′s Soybean Import Tariff Based on WITS-SMART Model(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2019年05期
Page:
793-805
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Research on the Adjustment Strategy of China′s Soybean Import Tariff Based on WITS-SMART Model
Author(s):
(College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)
Keywords:
Trade friction;  Soybean imports;  Tariff cut;  Partial equilibrium;  WITS-SMART model
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.05.0793
Abstract:
To narrow the import gap of Chinese soybean caused by sino-us trade friction, this paper examined the economic impact of import tariff reduction for China′s soybean using WITS-SMART model and HS Six-bit data. Simulations were conducted under five scenarios. Analysis of the extent of tariff reduction showed that, with the decline of tariffs, China′s soybean imports from importing countries will grow rapidly. The growth rate of import from countries with small soybean exports scale (such as Canada, Russia, Uruguay, etc.) was generally higher than that of countries with large soybean export scale. If China cuts its soybean tariffs for larger exporting countries, such as Brazil, it will face huge tariff losses even though its welfare level will increase. The examination of product difference and import dependency showed that, the higher the import dependence, the smaller the trade diversion while conducting tariff reduction. Considering the price effect, it was found that oligarchs may affect the price of soybeans in the world market and cutting tariffs for oligarchs will lead to the decline of trade creation effect, trade diversion effect and import growth rate. Consequently, there occured the loss of tariff policy efficiency. Therefore, we argued that tariff reduction should not be implemented for Brazil and Argentina in the short term, while zero tariff should be implemented for Canada, Russia and other countries with smaller soybean exports scale to China. This study provides a policy basis for ensuring the stability of soybean supply and constructing the pluralistic pattern of soybean import in China.

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Last Update: 2019-09-20