|Table of Contents|

Analysis of Global Soybean Production Quantity Predicted by ARIMA Model(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2019年02期
Page:
298-303
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Analysis of Global Soybean Production Quantity Predicted by ARIMA Model
Author(s):
CAI Cheng-zhi1;  HUANG Jun-jie1;  LIANG Ying2
(1.Faculty of Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China; 2.Public Administration School of Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)
Keywords:
ARIMA model;  Global soybean;  Area harvested;  Production quantity
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2019.02.0298
Abstract:
As one of important crops used for food and oil in China and even the world, the soybean situation of production affects food security in the future. However up to now, there are few reports on ‘time series’ model used for studying situation and trend of global soybean production. Thus, in this paper ARIMA (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used for predicting and analyzing area harvested, average yield and production quantity of soybean by 2021 in the world. The results showed that in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, global soybean was respectively predicted to be 1.23×108, 1.27×108, 1.31×108 and 1.34×108 ha of area harvested, 2 767, 2 811, 2 855 and 2 900 kg?ha-1 of average yield, and 3.40×108, 3.57×108, 3.74×108 and 3.89×108 t of production quantity, while Chinese soybean was respectively predicted to be 6.77×106, 6.72×106, 6.68×106 and 6.63×106 ha of area harvested, 1 866, 1 887, 1 908 and 1 930 kg?ha-1 of average yield, and 1.26×107, 1.27×107, 1.27×107 and 1.28×107 t of production quantity, and American soybean was respectively predicted to be 3.49×107, 3.56×107, 3.64×107 and 3.71×107 ha of area harvested, 3 287, 3 329, 3 372 and 3 415 kg?ha-1 of average yield, and 1.15×108, 1.18×108, 1.23×108 and 1.27×108 t of production quantity. These results mean that global soybean owns enlarging area harvested, rising yield and increasing production quantity, while Chinese soybean is slowly reducing area harvested, rising yield and decreasing production quantity from 2004, and American soybean holds enlarging area harvested, rising yield and increasing production quantity. The conclusion can provides decision-making reference for Chinese soybean production and import.

References:

［1］潘崇义, 薛洁. 世界大豆的发展与预测［J］. 农业系统科学与综合研究, 1995, 11(1): 59-62. (Pan C Y, Xue J. The development and projection of global soybean［J］. System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture, 1995, 11(1): 59-62.)

［2］蓝昊, 宣亚南. 世界大豆贸易格局的演变及对我国的启示［J］. 国际贸易问题, 2008, 34(6): 39-44. (Lan H, Xuan Y N. The variation situation of global soybean’s trade and its reference to China［J］. Journal of International Trade, 2008, 34(6): 39-44.)
［3］Liu X Q, Wen J A, Ren H X, et al. Genetic variation of world soybean maturity date and geographic distribution of maturity groups［J］. Breeding Science, 2017, 67(3): 221-232.
［4］Hartman G L, West E D, Herman T K. Crops that feed the world: Soybean-world wide production, use, and constraints caused by pathogens and pests ［J］. Food Security, 2011, 3(1): 5-17.
［5］王友华, 蔡晶晶, 杨明, 等. 全球转基因大豆专利信息分析与技术展望［J］. 中国生物工程杂志, 2018, 38(2): 116-125. (Wang Y H, Cai J J, Yang M, et al. Patent information analysis and technical prospect on global transgenic soybean［J］. Journal of Chinese Biotechnology, 2018, 38(2): 116-125.)
［6］顾崴. 未来全球大豆贸易格局或发生变化［J］. 黑龙江粮食, 2018(4): 19-20. (Gu W. Trade pattern of global soybean may change in the future［J］. Journal of Heilongjiang Grain, 2018(4): 19-20.)
［7］李春顶. 大豆进口零关税给全球贸易送来清凉［N］. 21世纪经济报道, 2018-07-02. (Li C D. Zero tariff of soybean import leaves global trade cool and refreshing［N］. 21st Century Business Herald, 2018-07-02.)
［8］Masuda T, Goldsmith P D. World soybean production: Area harvested, yield, and long-term projections［J］. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 2009, 12(4): 143-161.
［9］蔡承智, 张建威, 梁颖. 基于ARIMA模型的世界大豆单产预测分析［J］. 大豆科学, 2018, 37(3): 452-457. (Cai C Z, Zhang J W, Liang Y. Analysis of global soybean yield projected by ARIMA model［J］. Soybean Science, 2018, 37(3): 452-457.)
［10］赵燕. 全球供应依然宽松 大豆市场继续承压［N］. 期货日报, 2018-02-12. (Zhao Y. Global supply is still loose, soybean market continuously bears pressure ［N］. Futures Daily, 2018-02-12.)

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2019-04-01