|Table of Contents|

Prediction and Analysis of Soybean Price in China Based on System Dynamics(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2018年05期
Page:
787-793
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Prediction and Analysis of Soybean Price in China Based on System Dynamics
Author(s):
XU Xin-zhouMA Kai-ping
(College of Engineering, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210032, China)
Keywords:
Soybean price System dynamics Prediction
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.05.0787
Abstract:
Soybean is a traditional crop in China. It is also a large agricultural product with high demand in China. Reasonable prediction of soybean prices has important economic and practical significance for China′s soybean market. This paper defines the price of soybean and its influencing factors as a non-time-varying system with nonlinear, high noise and large fluctuation, by using the theory of system dynamics. The causality diagram is drawn to study the causal feedback relationship between the soybean supply, demand and price factors, and construct a systematic dynamic model. The influence of factors such as population, economic factors, soybean supply, soybean consumption, soybean consumption, and other oil crop prices on the price of soybean was systematically simulated. The annual data of 2006-2016 soybean prices were simulated and proved, and then forecast annual soybean price data for 2017-2020 in China. The results showed that the model has effective prediction ability and high prediction accuracy. Due to the characteristics of system dynamics, it focuses more on the future trend of soybean prices, and then provides references for soybean practitioners and agricultural economic policies in China.

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Last Update: 2018-10-08