Study of Soybean Yield Forecast in Jilin Province Based on Climate Suitability Index Method(PDF)

¡¶´ó¶¹¿Æѧ¡·[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:

2018Äê03ÆÚ

Page:

445-451

Research Field:

Publishing date:

Info

Title:

Study of Soybean Yield Forecast in Jilin Province Based on Climate Suitability Index Method

Author(s):

QIU Mei-juan¹; GUO Chun-ming¹; WANG Dong-ni¹;  MU Chen-ying²;  MU Jia¹;  QU Si-miao¹;  YUAN Fu-xiang¹; WANG Qi¹

(1.Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062, China; 2.Shenyang Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110168, China)

Keywords:

Soybean;  Meteorological yield;  Climatic suitability;  Accuracy rate;  Agricultural meteorology

PACS:

-

DOI:

10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2018.03.0445

Abstract:

In order to forecast the yield of soybean in time# and accurately and provide reliable basis for the relevant departments to ensure the food security of Jilin province, the temperature, precipitation, sunshine and comprehensive climatic suitability models of eachten-day in growth stages of soybean were constructed by using the yield material, developmental stages and daily meteorological data, from 1980 to 2016, and considering the upper limit temperature, the lower temperature, the optimal temperature, the water and sunshine demand for the growth and development of soybean. And ª«viaª« the correlation and regression analysis with meteorological yield, dynamic yield forecast model based on climate suitability index of each ten-day during July to August were established to predict the soybean yield of Jilin province dynamically. The results showed that the yield forecast models in different periods all passed the validity test of 0.05 level, and could reflect the status of meteorological factors in growing stages of soybean objectively. The mean accuracy rate of the yield dynamic prediction model for historical fitting test was all above 85.0%, and the nonmalized root mean square error n-RMSE was less than 20.0%. Inter-annual variation between actual relative meteorological yield and relative meteorological yield fit by yield dynamic prediction model had good consistency, and the correlation passed the significant test of 0.05 level. In the 34 years from 1981 to 2014, the accurate yield tendency forecast of each ten-day was all above 24 years. The extrapolation forecast accuracy of 2015-2016 in each period was above 92.0% and 81.4% respectively and the tendency prediction was unstable. It may be for the reason that the influence of disaster was not considered in the model. Generally, the production forecast model was set up to provide important basis for agricultural meteorological yield forecast of Jilin province.

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