|Table of Contents|

System Development of Dynamic Forecast on Soybean Yield of Main Areas in Heilongjiang Province(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2017年06期
Page:
950-957
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
System Development of Dynamic Forecast on Soybean Yield of Main Areas in Heilongjiang Province
Author(s):
ZHU Hai-xia; ZHAO Hui-ying; LI Xiu-fen; JI Ying-hui; WANG Qiu-jing
(Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Harbin 150030, China)
Keywords:
Soybean;  Yield;  Dynamic Forecast;  Forecast system
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.06.0950
Abstract:
Soybean is one of the most important oil crops in China and Heilongjiang province is the main production base of soybean in China. It is significant to study soybean yield prediction method for the national economy and the people′s livelihood in this region. Based on bumper or poor harvest of soybean due to meteorological element variation between two adjoined years in history, a dynamic prediction model was established for region-specific soybean yield, by using the data of yield of agro-meteorological experimental station in major soybean producing areas in development stage, daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation and daily sunshine duration. On base of these models, dynamic forecast system of soybean yield was established with computer language of VB 6.0.The result showed that mean accuracy was high for forecast trend and forecast yield of these soybean models by verifying yield from 2011 to 2013, true real trend was consistent with 81% soybean forecast trend of five stations, and the forecast accuracy of yield was better in general.The forecast accuracy was higher when soybean was gradually ripe. The forecast system could expediently and quickly forecast soybean yield of main areas in Heilongjiang province with the operation of 2016.

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Last Update: 2018-01-28