|Table of Contents|

Prediction on Chinese Soybean Yield Based on ARIMA Model(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2017年05期
Page:
789-795
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Prediction on Chinese Soybean Yield Based on ARIMA Model
Author(s):
CAI Cheng-zhi1;  MO Hong-lan1;  LIANG Ying2
(1.Economy College of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China; 2.Public Administration Faculty of Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)
Keywords:
ARIMA model;  Soybean;  Yield
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2017.05.0789
Abstract:
In this paper, the potentials of Chinese soybean yield per unit are estimated by light use efficiency (LUE) and agricultural ecological zoning (AEZ) model, based on which the soybean yield before 2020 were predicted by ARIMA model. The results showed that maximum potential of Chinese soybean yield in long future estimated by AEZ model was 3 400 kg·ha-1, while the yield in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, predicted by ARIMA model, was 1 899,1 926,1 954 and 1 982 kg·ha-1, respectively, with 55.85%, 56.65%, 57.47% and 58.29% of its maximum potential, correspondingly. The results signified that higher improvement opportunities for Chinese soybean production come from both sustaining the productivity of high yield fields and ameliorating middle and low ones, which would provide reference significance to guiding national practice.

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Last Update: 2017-11-01