|Table of Contents|

Influence Factors Analysis and Price Prediction of Soybean in China Based on Improved GM (1, N) Model(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2016年05期
Page:
847-852
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Influence Factors Analysis and Price Prediction of Soybean in China Based on Improved GM (1, N) Model
Author(s):
FAN Zhen; MA Kai-ping; JIANG Shun-jie; SHI Bo
（College of Engineering, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, China）
Keywords:
Soybean price;  Grey correlation analysis;  Grey prediction;  GM (1;  N)
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.05.0847
Abstract:
Soybean is an important food crop and oil crop in China, and its price has a profound impact on the national economy, especially the agricultural economy. The stability of soybean prices for the healthy development of the soybean market in China has important practical significance. Based on the grey theory, an improved GM (1, N) model is proposed. First, using the gray correlation analysis method to analyze the factors that affect the price of soybean in our country, and select the main factors.Then select these factors as the correlation factors of the model, to build the GM (1, N) model. We used the 2010 to 2015 soybean data for empirical research, and the model selected four variables of the domestic soybean self-sufficiency, world soybean production, the country′s consumer price index, consumer confidence index as a related factor. Model prediction error was 2.10% and the prediction accuracy is higher. It could grasp the change of soybean price better, and provide theoretical guidance for the soybean price market forecast and national macro policy formulation.

References:

［1］刘家富,周慧秋,李孝忠国内大豆市场价格波动及其影响因素分析［J］.东北农业大学学报(社会科学版)，2010,8(4):10-13.(Liu J F, Zhou H Q, Li X Z. Analysis on price fluctuation and affecting factors of soybean in China［J］. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2010,8(4):10-13.)

［2］许世卫,李哲敏,李干琼, 等. 农产品市场价格短期预测研究进展［J］.中国农业科学,2011,44(17):3666-3675.（Xu S W, Li M Z, Li G Q, et al. Advances in research of short-term forecasting methods of agricultural product price［J］.Scientia Agricultura Sinica ,2011, 44(17):3666-3675.）
［3］沈子曦,王磊.国内大豆价格影响因素探讨［J］.证券市场导报,2014(9):72-78.（Shen Z X, Wang L. Study on the influencing factors of domestic soybean price［J］. Securities Market Herald,2014(9):72-78.）
［4］邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程［M］.武汉：华中理工大学出版社，1990:46-88.(Deng J L.Grey system theory tutorial［M］. Wuhan: Publisher of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1990:46-88.)
［5］邓立军.灰色系统中模型GM(1,1)对于大豆价格指数的预测［J］.科技视界,2014(21):16.（Deng L J.Grey system model GM (1,1) for the prediction of soybean price index［J］. Science & Technology Vision,2014(21):16.）
［6］方燕,马艳.我国大豆价格波动及其未来走势预测［J］.价格理论与实践,2014(6):67-69.（Fang Y, Ma Y. Prediction of soybean price fluctuation and its future trend in China［J］.Price theory and Practice,2014(6):67-69.）
［7］朱婧,范亚东,徐勇.基于改进GM（1，1）模型的中国大豆价格预测［J］ .大豆科学,2016,35(2):315-319.(Zhu J, Fan Y D, Xu Y. Soybean price prediction in China based on modified GM(1,1) model ［J］.Soybean Science, 2016, 35(2): 315-319.)
［8］刘欢，张冬青.基于分位数回归的国产大豆价格影响因素分析［J］.大豆科学,2014,33(5):759-763.( Liu H, Zhang D Q. Analysis on influencing factors of domestic soybean price based on quantile regression［J］. Soybean Science, 2014, 33(5): 759-763.)
［9］王雪尽.我国大豆产业的危机及对策［J］.经济问题，2010(1):81-86.( Wang X J. Crisis and countermeasures of soybean industry in China［J］. Journal of Economic Issues,2010(1):81-86.)
［10］谷强平,周静,杜吉到.基于贸易视角的中国大豆产业安全分析［J］.大豆科学,2015,34(2):314-319.(Gu Q P, Zhou J, Du J D.China’s soybean industry safety analysis based on the perspective of trade［J］.Soybean Science,2015,34(2):314-319.)

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2016-09-25