|Table of Contents|

Soybean Price Prediction in China Basedon Modified GM(1,1) Model(PDF)

《大豆科学》[ISSN:1000-9841/CN:23-1227/S]

Issue:
2016年02期
Page:
315-319
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Soybean Price Prediction in China Basedon Modified GM(1,1) Model
Author(s):
ZHU Jing;  FAN Ya-dong;  XU Yong
College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Keywords:
Soybean in China;  Price prediction;  Modified GM(1; 1) model
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2016.02-0315
Abstract:
China soybean industry is one of the national fundamental industries, domestic and international market have enormous influence on the price fluctuation of soybean, soybean volatility on Chinese soybean research has the vital significance. This paper uses modified GM(1,1) to predict soybean price in China from 2015 to 2017 by the datasets with soybean price from 1990 to 2014. Predicted soybean price in China is 4.40, 4.57 and 4.74 yuan.kg-1, respectively. In this experiment, the modified GM(1,1) has not done the accumulate operation on original sequences, illustrating that the original sequence has accurate index law. Test results showed that the posterior error ratio was less than 0.5 and small error probability was greater than 0.8, thus, using grey prediction to predict the data was qualified.Since predicted price in 2015 is lower than soybean target price in three northeast provinces and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, it showed that soybean in China was not successful and led to decreasing planting area of soybean in China and farmer planting willingness.Based on these, some suggestions were given as follows: firstly, planting subsidy and target price of soybean would be continuously improved. Secondly, government would specially support local soybean industry, especially, non-transgenic soybean industry, keeping healthy development of domestic soybean industry. Finally, organization degree of soybean industry and soybean growers would be improved in China.

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Last Update: 2016-04-04